IOWA CITY, Iowa – Iowa and Illinois come into Saturday’s night game in Champaign from different places. The Hawkeyes are licking their wounds from a home loss to No. 4 Michigan. The Illini are riding the high of knocking off Big Ten West power Wisconsin on the road.
That certainly will influence wagering on this contest. The public is down on Iowa, a team whose feeble offense is a national punchline. Illinois, much like Minnesota last week, is the current darling of a mucked up division.
It’s a mirky spot, gambling wise, for an Illini program fighting its way back to respectability and a Hawkeye one aiming to maintain consistency. One can’t feel great about backing either side here.
With that said, let’s take a look at the matchup from a gambling perspective in our weekly Odds & Trends piece:
Point Spreads: Iowa opened up as a 4.5-point underdog in the Vegas Insider consensus. It sat at Illinois -3.5 Friday morning. It stood there for all of the books in the VI consensus with the exception of Fubo Sportsbook, which had the Hawkeyes +3.0.
Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with Iowa at +143, and it rose to +145 as of Friday morning. Illinois opened at -169, a number that jumped to -175 on Friday.
Over/Under: Also referred to as “the total”, this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams.
The VI consensus puts it at 37.0 Friday morning, up from a 36.5 open. Points Bet showed it at 36.0, and Sports Illustrated held at 37.0 Friday morning.
Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.
As of Friday morning, 54 percent of the bets placed on the contest went on Iowa, according to the Action Network.
These percentages can, and often do shift as the game draws closer. The “sharps” (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.
Illinois Trends
-Illinois is 7-0-1 Against The Spread (ATS) vs. a team with a winning record.
-Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
-Illinois is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
-Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
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-Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a ATS win.
-Under is 9-1 in Fighting Illini last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
-Under is 6-2 in Illinois’ last 8 home games.
Iowa Trends
-Iowa is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
-Hawkeyes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
-Iowa is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games in October.
-Hawkeyes are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
-Iowa is 3-1-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a ATS loss.
-Under is 5-1 in Hawkeyes’ last 6 games overall.
-Over is 5-1 in Iowa’s last 6 conference games.
Matchup Trends
-Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
-Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Illinois.
-Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Howe’s Best Bet: Iowa +3.5
I’m back on the Hawkeye train this week. If you’ve followed my plays this season, you’ll strongly consider the other side.
