Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Northwestern Football – Sports Illustrated Iowa Hawkeyes News, Analysis and More
IOWA CITY, Iowa – If you want to know how bad things are going for Northwestern, you need look no farther than the point spread for its game Saturday at Iowa. The Wildcats are an 11.0-point underdog to a team that’s scored a total of nine points on offense during its last two games.
They opened the season knocking off Nebraska in Ireland. They’ve proceeded to drop their next six games played. They finished 3-9 last year and are 2-11 in conference contests the last two campaigns.
The Hawkeyes (3-4 overall, 1-3 Big Ten) are last among conference teams in scoring (14.0 points per game). Northwestern (1-6, 1-3) is the second worst (18.6). The teams have a combined 10 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
The contest also features the two longest tenured head coaches in the league. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is in Year 24 while Pat Fitzgerald is leading the Wildcats for 17th season.
Despite winning during his last three trips to Kinnick Stadium, Fitzgerald knows the Hawkeyes’ home field advantage is among the best in the country.
“It’s an unbelievable fan base. I requested from the Big Ten that we kick this game off at 6 a.m.,” he joked on Monday. “They obviously wouldn’t let that happen, so nothing better than Kinnick at 2:30. I guess that’s a welcome present to the Cats as we cross the Mississippi (River).”
Iowa lost 54-10 at Ohio State Saturday, the most points scored by an opponent during the Ferentz era. Maryland outlasted the Wildcats, 31-24, last week in College Park. The Terps played backup quarterback Billy Edwards Jr.
Northwestern has turned to sophomore quarterback Brendan Sullivan. The Michigan native 18 of 24 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown against two interceptions while making his first college start at Maryland. He also rushed 13 times for 53 yards and a score.
Evan Hull paces the Wildcat rushing attack with 547 yards and three touchdowns. He’s coming off a 119-yard ground performance at Maryland. In addition, he’s dangerous in the passing game (40 catches, 436 yards and two scores).
Receiver Malik Washington leads Northwestern with 448 yards on 40 receptions. Former Illinois wideout Danny Navarro (28-224-2) also stands out in the passing game.
“They’ve got a great running back, very dynamic, good O-Line that he runs behind, so we’re trying to stop him,” Iowa safety Quinn Schulte said. “And then they have a quarterback that can run, too, and good wide receivers that they get the ball to. There’s just a lot of different weapons that they have”
Northwestern boasts one of the top offensive tackles nationally in Peter Skoronski (6-4, 315). The unit beyond the two-time, all-Big Ten selection is playing inconsistently. It faces a tough challenge in mounting an attack against the Hawkeyes.
“They’re obviously playing outstanding defense. You could argue some of the best defense in the country,” Fitzgerald said. “Pop on the tape, it doesn’t take long to see.”
Sullivan brings a different element than what Iowa has faced, for the most part, this season. The defense must account for his running ability. It’s also a change for the Northwestern receivers.
“There’s a couple more scramble drills that we have to be prepared for,” Washington said. “You have to practice being ready for him using his legs, finding ways to get blocks down the field. And then finding ways to get open because he has a big arm.”
Said Schulte: “It’s just another challenge when a guy can bring it down and run. It’s our job to just be aware of that. They have some RPO but there are also quarterback draws and then a lot of times he just takes it down if guys are in man and he sees a lane.”
Defensively, the Wildcats are yielding 28.1 points per game, the third most in the Big Ten. Their 187.6 yards rushing allowed per game are the second most in the conference. Junior linebacker Bryce Gallagher, the younger brother of former Northwestern standout, Blake Gallagher, ranks second to Iowa’s Jack Campbell among top tacklers in the league with 70.
The Wildcats leaky defense might be just what Iowa’s punchless offense needs to get on track. The Hawkeyes have three offensive touchdowns in four Big Ten contests and none in the last two games.
TV ANNOUNCERS: Anish Schroff, Brock Osweiler, Taylor McGregor on ESPN2.
SERIES: Iowa holds a 52-28-3 advantage in the series that began with a 12-6 Iowa victory in 1897. The Hawkeyes are 26-12 all-time in games played in Iowa City.
Iowa won 21 consecutive games over Northwestern prior to a 31-20 Wildcat win in 1995 in Evanston. The Wildcats hold a 14-11 advantage since snapping that Hawkeye winning streak.
Iowa won the last meeting, 17-12, in Evanston in 2021. The visiting team has been victorious in each of the last four meetings, with the Wildcats winning the last three meetings in Kinnick Stadium. Five of the last six games in the series have been decided by a touchdown or less.
BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 10.5-point favorite in the Vegas Insider consensus Sunday night. It rose to the Hawkeyes -11.0 by Monday afternoon. The total opened at 35.5 and move to 36.5 by Monday afternoon.
TRENDS
-Northwestern is 3-7 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 10 games overall.
-Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 conference games.
-Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games.
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-Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 home games.
NORTHWESTERN PLAYERS TO WATCH
–Peter Skoronski, LT – Skoronski was named to the Midseason All-America Team by Pro Football Focus and the Associated Press. Heading into last week’s game at Maryland, he was graded as the top pass-protector in the country by PFF, with a 93.0 pass blocking grade. He has allowed only two pressures on 278 pass-blocking snaps (0.7% pressure rate), the best among all tackles in the country. According to PFF, his 80.3 run-blocking grade also ranked 8th best among all Power 5 tackles.
-Evan Hull, RB – Hull was named to preseason watch lists for both the Maxwell Award and Doak Walker Awards. Last season, Hull earned All-Big Ten honorable mention accolades (both by Coaches and Media) after rushing for 1,009 yards (6th in the Big Ten), becoming NU’s first 1,000 yard rusher since Justin Jackson did so during his senior season in 2017.
–Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE – registered 15 pressures and 12 run stops this season through his first 5 games, per PFF. He led the ‘Cats with 4.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss last year on his way to All-Big Ten honors. The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman selected Adebawore to his annual “Freak List,” spotlighting 100 players in college football displaying extraordinarily unique physical abilities. Notable accolades for Adebawore include: 30 bench press reps (225 lbs), 37.5″ vertical leap, 20-yd shuttle time of 4.05.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Northwestern: The Wildcats have to run the football effectively and avoid turnovers.
Iowa: Establish the run and take some shots down the field.
GAME NOTES
-Following the retirement of legendary assistant coach Mike Hankwitz after the Wildcats’ 2021 Citrus Bowl victory, Northwestern had a new defensive coordinator last year for the !rst time since 2007. Fitzgerald turned to the NFL and brought in Jim O’Neil to be the new DC. O’Neil came to Evanston after spending three seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders including one as the defensive backs coach. He was the defensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns (2014-15) and San Francisco 49ers (2016).
-Over the years, Pat Fitzgerald’s teams have been among the most disciplined in the country when it comes to not committing penalties. Since 2013, the Wildcats have !nished in the Top-40 in the nation in both the fewest penalties committed per game, as well as the fewest penalty yards per game. In 2018, during the Wildcats’ run to the Big Ten Championship, NU ranked !rst in the nation in both fewest penalties per game and fewest penalty yards per game.
-For the fourth straight year, Northwestern Football tallied an Academic Progress Rate score of 995 or better, while pacing the Big Ten Conference and ranking fourth nationally in FBS. The Wildcats Top-4 in the country for GSR among FBS football programs for 11 straight years. A program-record 76 players earned Academic All-Big Ten in 2021, while their 19 Big Ten Distinguished Scholars (3.7+ GPA) led all Big Ten programs. NU also led all FBS programs with 10 graduated players being named members of the 2022 Hampshire Honor Society, given to student-athletes who maintained a cumulative 3.2 GPA or better throughout their college careers.
-Northwestern ran an average of 78.2 plays through its first six games of 2022, which ranked 13th in the nation and fourth in the Big Ten behind Indiana, Purdue and Illinois. The Wildcats’ 474 plays run through six games were their fourth-most since 2000 and the most since 2018.
-Northwestern’s 2022 roster consists of 108 student-athletes, spanning 31 states — the most in the Big Ten.
-Iowa’s defense is ranked sixth nationally in total defense (278.3), eighth in scoring defense (16.1), 11th in passing yards allowed (174.0), 12th in passing efficiency defense (108.95), 14th in rushing defense (104.3) and 15th in first down defense (115). The Hawkeyes have given up 14 or fewer points in five of their seven games.
-Hawkeye TE Sam LaPorta is second amongst Big Ten tight ends and fifth nationally in receptions in 2022. LaPorta has 36 receptions for 336 yards in seven games. LaPorta is 10th in the Big Ten in receptions per game (5.1).
-Iowa K Drew Stevens has made 7-of-8 field goals attempts as a true freshman, including 2-of-3 from 40+ and 1-of-1 from 50+. The last true freshman to kick for the Hawkeyes was Keith Duncan in 2016.
-Hawkeye LB Jack Campbell is leading the B1G and ranks 11th nationally with 71 tackles in seven games. The Cedar Falls, Iowa, native has had 8 or more tackles in each game, including 4 games with 10+ tackles. Campbell is tied for 38th in program history with 248 tackles with Pat Angerer and Merton Hanks. He also has an INT, fumble recovery and safety this season.
-Iowa P Tory Taylor is second in the Big Ten and ninth nationally with a 45.6 average on 46 punts (tied for the third most in the country). Fifteen of Taylor’s punts have gone 50+ yards, 21 have been downed inside the 20 and 13 have been fair caught. Taylor has twice been named the Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week this season.
NOTABLE ALUMNI
Northwestern – Kathryn Hahn
Iowa – W.D. Snodgrass
HOWE I SEE IT: This one isn’t going to be aesthetically pleasing. Expect a rock fight with points at a premium.
Neither of these teams cares what it looks like. They both need a win.
Iowa’s defense will be, by far, the best unit on the field Saturday. The Hawkeye special teams might be the second best.
I expect an ultra-conservative game plan from Iowa on offense. Coaches will lean heavily on the defense and hope to establish a running game.
The Hawkeyes have experienced issues this season. Northwestern has been worse.
PREDICTION: IOWA 16, Northwestern 6
