Purdue vs. Michigan State Odds, Picks
Purdue vs. Michigan State Odds
The Boilermakers will travel to East Lansing as the No. 3 team in the country, with their only loss so far this season coming on the road against Rutgers, 65-64.
Michigan State will look to rebound from a Friday road loss to Illinois, 75-66. The Spartans were cold from the outside against the Illini, failing to convert any of their seven 3-point attempts.
To determine if the Boilermakers will continue their dominant play against the Spartans, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Purdue vs. Michigan State.
Purdue has put together a stellar 2022-23 campaign through 17 games. The Boilermakers boast the No. 1 offense in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency. They are able to match this with a defense ranked 29th nationally in the same category.
Offensively, the Boilermakers have found success through a deliberate tempo, an ability to get to the free-throw line and offensive rebounding.
Purdue ranks 329th in average offensive possession length, taking 19.1 seconds per possession. A significant number of these possession result in Purdue going free-throw line, as the Boilermakers score 21.6% of their points from the charity stripe (36th nationally).
In addition, Purdue is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, creating second chances on 39.8% of its possessions.
This rebounding ability is a result of 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey’s unmatched post presence. The All-American has an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.7%, the highest rate in the country.
Although it’s a difficult task to completely stop Edey, the Spartans’ defense has shown an ability to limit second-chance opportunities. Michigan State ranks 12th nationally in offensive rebounding defense, allowing second chances on just 22.9% of possessions.
In addition to limiting second chances, Michigan State has been able to defend without fouling, allowing its opponents to score just 16.9% of their points from the free-throw line.
The Spartans’ ability to limit the Boilermakers in these two major categories will hinder a Purdue offense that has given most of its opponents plenty of problems.
The Spartans have had an up and down 2022-23 season due to their inability to stay healthy.
In Friday’s loss to Illinois, forward Malik Hall re-injured his ankle that held him out of eight games towards the beginning of the year. Hall’s importance to this team was shown when the Spartans rattled off four straight wins when he returned to action on December 30.
The loss of Hall is a significant to a Spartans team that struggled offensively against Illinois. Michigan State failed to score from beyond the arc, attempting only seven 3s the entire game.
Finding some shooting progression will not come easily against a Purdue team that ranks 38th nationally in defending the perimeter. The Boilermakers have allowed their opponents to shoot just 30% from 3-point range.
These poor offensive trends will be highlighted by a methodical offensive tempo. Michigan State ranks 252nd in average offensive possession length, using 18.1 seconds per trip.
Lastly, Michigan State will not be able to look to the free-throw line for offensive relief, as Purdue allows just 11.5% of its points from the charity stripe (363rd nationally).
Overall, I expect Michigan State to be looking for offensive answers early and often on Monday afternoon.
Purdue vs. Michigan State Betting Pick
This matchup has all the ingredients of a classic low-scoring Big Ten battle.
Purdue is a team thriving off its ability to get to the free-throw line and create second chances, two areas the Spartans’ defense has been effective at limiting.
On the other side, Michigan State is coming off its worst outside shooting performance of the season while losing a pivotal offensive weapon.
These factors — combined with the slow and methodical pace of both offenses — make the under worth an investment.
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