Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin hunts for troops as ‘mobilisation rule for fathers of three dropped’

The Ukrainian defence of Bakhmut is “likely a strategically sound effort” even in spite of its costs, analysts have suggested.

In its latest daily update on Russia’s offensive, the US-based Institute for the Study of War said: “While the costs associated with Ukraine’s continued defense of Bakhmut are significant and likely include opportunity costs related to potential Ukrainian counter-offensive operations elsewhere, Ukraine would also have paid a significant price for allowing Russian troops to take Bakhmut easily.

“Bakhmut itself is not operationally or strategically significant but had Russian troops taken it relatively rapidly and cheaply they could have hoped to expand operations in ways that could have forced Ukraine to construct hasty defensive positions in less favorable terrain.

“One must also not dismiss the seemingly ‘political’ calculus of committing to the defence of Bakhmut lightly – Russian forces occupy more than 100,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory including multiple Ukrainian cities and are inflicting atrocities on Ukrainian civilians in occupied areas.

“It is not unreasonable for political and military leaders to weigh these factors in determining whether to hold or cede particular population concentrations.”

An aide to Volodymyr Zelensky has hit out at threats by a key ally of Vladimir Putin, Vyacheslav Volodin, that by providing Kyiv with more powerful weaponry Western powers are risking “global catastrophe” (see post at 9:52am).

Mykhailo Podolyak hit out at the suggestion that, while Russia has been bombing Ukraine for 11 months, killing civilians en masse, “the world must not resist and silently put up with it”.

Russian forces have launched an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region in southeast Ukraine as Kyiv condemns the failure of its allies to supply main battle tanks.

Moscow said it had launched “offensive operations” in the region on Saturday and claimed to control “more advantageous lines and positions”.

The UK’s Ministry of Defence also confirmed that both Ukraine and Russia had “massed significant forces” in the area and exchanged artillery fire and skirmishes.

Shelling attacks overnight in the Zaporizhzhia oblast targeted 21 cities and towns across the region. Governor Oleksandr Starukh reported that one woman was killed in the attacks and two other civilians injured.

Britain still wants to see Ukraine equipped with Leopard 2 tanks, the foreign secretary has said – as Germany faces pressure to allow the vehicles to be sent to Kyiv.

“Of course, I would like to see the Ukrainians equipped with things like the Leopard 2 as well as the artillery systems that have been provided by us and by others,” James Cleverly told Sky News.

“I will keep having those conversations with our Nato allies and friends, to facilitate the donation of the best military equipment to Ukraine to help them defend themselves against this brutal invasion.”

Asked whether Germany was doing enough to help Ukraine, Mr Cleverly said he wanted to see “everybody going as far as they can, but each country will support Ukraine in a way that is most appropriate to them.”

Amid fears of a further mobilisation, regional reports from Russia have claimed that military commissars have been ordered to draw up lists of men of fighting age, according to the Daily Telegraph.

Factory managers have also been asked which workers they can spare for the army, the paper reports.

Ukraine has repeatedly warned that the Kremlin could soon seek to mobilise another 500,000 troops, but Moscow has denied such plans.

A close ally of Vladimir Putin has threatened that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine “will lead to a global catastrophe”, claiming that arguments against using weapons of mass destruction “in local conflicts” are untenable.

Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, formerly a deputy prime minister and head of Mr Putin’s presidential administration, warned that US and Nato support of Ukraine was leading the world to a “terrible war”.

“If Washington and Nato countries supply weapons that will be used to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories, as they threaten, this will lead to retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons,” Mr Volodin said on Telegram.

“Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. Because these states did not face a situation where there was a threat to the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of the country.”

“Deliveries of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime will lead to a global catastrophe,” he added, claiming that politicians in the US, France, Germany and elsewhere in Europe “must realise their responsibility to humanity”.

Western allies pledged billions of pounds’ worth of weapons for Ukraine last week, although they failed to persuade Germany to lift a veto on providing Leopard 2 battle tanks, which are held by an array of Nato nations but whose transfer to Ukraine requires Berlin’s approval.

France and Germany are seeking to overcome differences laid bare by Russia’s war in Ukraine and shore up their alliance with a day of ceremonies and talks on Europe’s security, energy and other challenges.

Germany’s entire cabinet is in Paris on Sunday for joint meetings, and 300 politicians from both countries are coming together at the Sorbonne University to mark 60 years since a landmark treaty sealed a bond between the long-time enemies that underpins today’s European Union.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will oversee two rounds of talks at the Elysee Palace, focusing first on energy and economic policy, and then on defence.

The Kremlin has denied dropping a rule permitting fathers of three to defer mobilisation in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Citing the deputy chair of Russia’s Human Rights Council, state Duma deputy Nina Ostanina claimed that the loophole in Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation drive last autumn had been closed, in comments echoed by the military commissar of Russia’s Zabaikalsky region, Yuri Shuvalov.

But a senior politician in Mr Putin’s ruling United Russia party, Andrei Turchak, denied that the rule had been scrapped, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was “not aware” of the rule’s cancellation.

Kyiv has repeatedly warned that Moscow plans to mobilise half a million more troops.

The Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have jointly urged Germany to step up its leadership and send its main battle tanks to Ukraine, as an aide to Voldoymr Zelensky hit out at “indecision” over whether to arm Kyiv with the vehicles (see post at 6:03am).

“We, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania foreign ministers, call on Germany to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now,” Estonia’s Foreign Minister said on Twitter.

“This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard.”

The statement came a day after Germany and Western allies reached no decision on whether Berlin would agree to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine or permit other countries that have them to do so.

Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans for major changes to the structure of the armed forces on 17 January which will be implemented between 2023 and 2026, as highlighted in the UK MoD’s latest intelligence update.

This included an increase to 1.5 million personnel – an 11 per cent increase on top of the previously announced expansion to 1.35 million.

“Shoigu also announced the re-establishment of Moscow and Leningrad military districts, a partial return to the Soviet era organisation of forces in Western Russia. A new army corps is to be established in Karelia, near the Finnish border,” it added.

The MoD said it signals that Russia’s leadership highly likely assesses that an enhanced conventional military threat will endure for many years beyond the current Ukraine war. However, Russia will highly likely struggle to staff and equip the planned expansion.