Visa's View on the Holiday Shopping Season

Americans tend to overspend during the holiday season.

In fact, some borrowers are still paying off debt from last year’s purchases.

To that point, 28% of shoppers who used credit cards have not paid off the presents they bought for their loved ones last year, according to a holiday spending report by NerdWallet. The site polled more than 1,700 adults in September.  

However, this is a slight improvement from 2023, when 31% of credit card users had still not paid off their balances from the year before.

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Growth in credit card balances has also slowed, according to a separate quarterly credit industry insights report from TransUnion released on Tuesday.

Although overall credit card balances were 6.9% higher at the end of the third quarter compared to a year earlier, that’s a significant improvement from the 15% year-over-year jump from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, TransUnion found.

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,329, rising only 4.8% year over year — compared to an 11.2% increase the year before and 12.4% the year before that.

“People are getting comfortable with this post-pandemic life,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As inflation has returned to more normal levels in recent months, it has also meant consumers may be less likely to rely on these credit products to make ends meet.”

Recent wage gains have also played a role, according to Paul Siegfried, TransUnion’s senior vice president and credit card business leader. Lower inflation and higher pay “may be driving consumers toward a financial equilibrium,” he said.

Still, spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 is expected to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Shoppers may spend $1,778 on average, up 8% compared with last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found. Most will lean on plastic: About three-quarters, 74%, of consumers plan to use credit cards to make their purchases, according to NerdWallet.

“Between buying gifts and booking peak-season travel, the holidays are an expensive time of year,” said Sara Rathner, NerdWallet’s credit cards expert. However, this time around, “shoppers are setting strict budgets and taking advantage of seasonal sales.”

How to avoid overspending

“There’s no magic wand, we just have to do the hard stuff,” Candy Valentino, author of “The 9% Edge,” recently told CNBC. Mostly that means setting a budget and tracking expenses.

Valentino recommends reallocating funds from other areas — by canceling unwanted subscriptions or negotiating down utility costs — to help make room for holiday spending.

“A few hundred dollars here and there really adds up,” she said. That “stash of cash is one way to set yourself up so you are not taking on new debt.”

How to save on what you spend

Valentino also advises consumers to start their holiday shopping now to take advantage of early deals and discounts or try pooling funds among family or friends to share the cost of holiday gifts.

Then, curb temptation by staying away from the mall and unsubscribing from emails, opting out of text alerts, turning off push notifications in retail apps and unfollowing brands on social, she said.

“It will lessen your need and desire to spend,” Valentino said.

If you’re starting out the holiday season debt-free, you’re in a “strong position” to take advantage of credit card rewards, Rathner said.

Credit cards that offer rewards like cash back or sign-on bonuses will offer a better return on your holiday spending, she said.

However, if you are planning on purchasing big-ticket items to work towards such bonuses, make sure you’re able to pay off the balance in full to avoid falling into holiday debt, Rathner said.

What to do if you have debt from last year

People walk by sale signs in the Financial District on the first day back for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) since the Christmas holiday on December 26, 2023 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images



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