Posted on: May 12, 2026, 03:59h.
Last updated on: May 12, 2026, 03:59h.
- House Democrats seek subpoena power over military-linked prediction market trades
- Lawmakers cite suspicious Iran strike and ceasefire betting activity
- Senators urge CFTC crackdown on “death” and war-related contracts
House Democrats are asking for subpoena power to investigate possible insider trading on prediction markets related to US military operations.
The letter, led by Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and signed by six other House Democrats, was sent Monday to House Oversight Chair James Comer, and calls for greater scrutiny of the markets.
Subpoena power would give Congress the legal authority to compel prediction-market companies, brokers, banks and possibly government officials to hand over records so investigators can determine whether anyone used nonpublic military information to profit from trades.
Special Ops Soldier Accused
The move comes two weeks after US special forces soldier Gannon Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to charges including unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of non-public government information, and commodities fraud.
Prosecutors allege he used knowledge of top-secret operations to make more than $400,000 trading on when US forces would go into Venezuela and when President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted.
A CNN investigation published in March and referenced in the letter found that one Polymarket user earned nearly $1 million by correctly anticipating covert US and Israeli military action against Iran with a reported 93% win rate. The trader reportedly placed wagers just hours before operations were carried out in October 2024, February 2026, and June 2025.
In another case, a network of 38 accounts funded in the week leading up to the attacks collectively earned more than $2 million betting on the February 28 strikes. At least 50 newly created accounts also placed coordinated bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7, with some accounts appearing only minutes before the announcement became public.
‘Death’ Contracts
This has led to growing scrutiny by lawmakers. In February, a group of Senate Democrats urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, to take a hard line against event contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassinations and other “death” outcomes, arguing such markets are already prohibited under federal law.
The senators asked CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to “clearly reiterate that the CFTC will categorically prohibit any contract that resolves upon or closely correlates to an individual’s death.”
“The real-world consequences are already evident,” they added. “Prediction market platforms are offering contracts that mirror sportsbook wagers and, in some cases, contracts tied to war and armed conflict. These products evade state and tribal consumer protections, generate no public revenue, and undermine sovereign regulatory regimes.”