Nikki Budzinski and Regan Deering.
The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol has scheduled its next hearing for Oct. 13, pushing the investigation back into the limelight less than three weeks before the midterm election that will determine control of Congress. It will be the panel’s first public session since the summer, when lawmakers worked through a series of tightly scripted hearings that attracted millions of viewers and touched on nearly every aspect of the Capitol insurrection. The committee had planned to hold the hearing in late September, but postponed as Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida. The panel — comprised of seven Democrats and two Republicans — has not yet provided an agenda, but Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said recently that the hearing would “tell the story about a key element of Donald Trump’s plot to overturn the election.” Associated Press reporter Farnoush Amiri explains the significance of hearing’s timing, especially with midterm elections less than a month away and former President Trump’s influence over many of the Republican candidates. “Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but so many people who have taken his cause and who have taken his baseless claims for election fraud and voter fraud in the 2020 election are on the ballot,” Amiri said. The Committee is expected to release a final cumulative report of its findings by the end of the year.
SPRINGFIELD — When U.S. Rep. Bill Enyart, D-Belleville, lost his bid for reelection in the 12th Congressional District in 2014, Illinois was left without a Democratic congressperson south of Interstate 72 for the first time since at least World War II.
Though the party twice came exasperatingly close — 1,002 votes in 2012 and 2,058 votes in 2018 — to defeating Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, in the neighboring Central Illinois-based 13th Congressional District, that effort proved futile amid a shifting political terrain.
But after a decade of tough losses, false starts and unfulfilled hopes, Democrats believe 2022 is the year and Nikki Budzinski is the candidate to finally return a downstate Illinois congressional seat to the blue column.
Budzinski, a Peoria-born political consultant and labor activist, is running against Republican Regan Deering, a Decatur community activist and scion of one of the most prominent families in American agribusiness.
The pair are competing in the newly reconfigured 13th Congressional District, which was drawn by Springfield Democrats during the once-a-decade redistricting process last year with the intention of giving the party a foothold in central and southern Illinois once more.
They did this by narrowing the geographic size of the district, cutting out several conservative rural communities and consolidating the most urban, liberal portions of the Metro East region, previously split three ways, into one district.
As a result, the string bean-shaped district stretches from East St. Louis to Champaign-Urbana, picking up Springfield and Decatur in between — a mix of college towns and communities with a blend of blue- and white-collar industries. Not to mention a sizable Black population that forms an influential bloc.
This also shifted the district’s partisan lean from voting for President Donald Trump by three points to one that voted for President Joe Biden by an 11-point margin in 2020. It also cut Davis out of the district, leaving it open and perhaps making for an easier path for Budzinski.
The district includes a mix of the increasingly cosmopolitan, urban base that has come to define the modern Democratic Party along with remnants of the coalition made up of unionized coal miners, steel plant workers and workers in other heavy industries that had previously made the region a Democratic stronghold.
“I think when the rubber really hits the road — the makeup of the district and we do our job turning the vote out — she will be the next Congress member from the 13th district. No doubt about it in my mind,” said Sangamon County Democratic Party chair Bill Houlihan. “But these elections have ebbs and flows.”
Indeed, the district’s fundamentals suggest it to be a Democratic-leaning district. However, low approval ratings for Biden, sky-high inflation and the poor performance the president’s party typically faces in midterm elections have given Republicans hope that the race could be within reach.
The district’s working class, blue collar constituency has come to define the campaign, with each candidate laser-focusing their messaging on “kitchen table” economic issues, such as bringing down inflation.
“I think, for sure, the defining issue of this campaign is going to be the cost of living,” Deering told Lee Enterprises in an interview earlier this month.
“The question is always, are you better off today than you were two years ago?” she continued. “And the answer is no.”
Decatur native Regan Deering discusses her campaign for Congress
Deering, a first-time candidate, has blamed Biden policies and, by extension, Budzinski for the rise in prices, tying it back to significant government spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. Deering, however, has been short on specific policy proposals to address the issue.
Budzinski, though also a first-time candidate, has been around politics for more than two decades, serving most recently as chief of staff for Biden’s Office of Management and Budget, where she played an integral role in crafting and implementing the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.
Among other things, Budzinski said she would seek to address inflation by repealing the Trump tax cuts while making the child tax credit — a signature achievement in the American Rescue Plan that lapsed last year — permanent.
“We need to be fighting for the middle class, and tax cuts should be targeted to those families,” Budzinski told Lee Enterprises in an interview on Friday. “That’s all a part of a larger effort to help people keep more of what they’ve earned but also address rising costs so that people can afford day to day expenses.”
Though a mainstream Democrat, Budzinski has put distance between herself and her party on a number of issues. She is against Biden’s plan to forgive $10,000 in student loans for all borrowers earning under $125,000 per year, for instance.
She also favors an “all of the above” energy strategy, notably releasing a statement earlier this year in support of the construction of a natural gas plant in rural Sangamon County.
“So I’m a trade unionist, a made-in-America Democrat,” Budzinski told Lee Enterprises in August. “I’m not a typical Democrat.”
Sen. Dick Durbin and congressional candidate Nikki Budzinski headline address Democratic primary voters in Springfield.
Before her stint in the Biden Administration, Budzinski was a senior adviser to Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s campaign and, later, administration. She also worked for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign and was in the labor movement for 10 years with the International Association of Firefighters and later the United Food and Commercial Workers Union.
While Budzinski may be most associated with labor, Deering’s ties are decidedly business. She is a member of the Andreas family, which ran Archer Daniels Midland Co. for nearly four decades and, in the process, transformed it from a modest regional grain processor into a world-leading company.
Deering was born in Decatur but spent most of her adolescence in the Chicago region, moving back to Soy City after getting married. She has since been involved in various philanthropic endeavors and was a small business owner.
Most notably, she was president of the board of directors for the Northeast Community Fund, an organization that serves low-income Decatur families by helping with food, clothing, financial assistance and advising programs.
Like Budzinski, Deering has sought to separate herself from the most extreme elements of her party.
Though personally anti-abortion, a position influenced by her own background as an adoptee, Deering said she opposes a federal abortion ban. She said the issue should remain in the hands of the states. She also supports exceptions for rape, incest and the life and health of the mother.
Deering
“It’s a challenge for me being a woman that supports life in a state that has very radical legislation that is late-term abortion and fully taxpayer-funded,” Deering said in August. “But, that’s why I think elections in November are gonna matter at the state level as well.”
Budzinski, who would vote to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law, said Deering cannot be trusted on the issue.
“No one believes that,” Budzinski said. “It’s political speak because she knows that women are paying attention to this election and they’re going to come out and vote and they are going to want to protect their right to choose. It’s a critical election.”
Budzinski
Deering is supported by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, an anti-abortion group that is supporting federal legislation introduced last month that calls for banning abortion after 15 weeks. Budzinski, on the other hand, is supported by pro-abortion rights Planned Parenthood.
On guns, Deering said she supports the Second Amendment and has been endorsed by the National Rifle Association. Budzinski said she supports “commonsense gun safety measures.”
On immigration, both candidates said there was a need for comprehensive reform, with Budzinski explicitly calling for a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers, who are undocumented people brought to the country as minors.
Deering said “there is a conversation to be had” on a pathway to citizenship but said that the border must first be secured. She criticized Biden for reversing Trump-era policies such as “Remain in Mexico,” in which asylum seekers stayed in Mexico while awaiting their hearing in the United States.
Both candidates have touted support from law enforcement, with Deering securing the endorsement of the Illinois Fraternal Order of Police and Budzinski having the support of the Illinois Police Benevolent and Protective Association.
And in a cycle where several Republican candidates for office nationwide have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, Deering said she believes that Biden is the duly-elected president.
Most national election handicappers have the race as “leans Democrat.”
The race has remained off the national radar, especially in comparison to the nearby 17th Congressional District, where Democratic and Republican groups have each poured millions of dollars into the open race to succeed retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-East Moline.
Budzinski, utilizing her deep connections in Springfield and Washington, has generated significant support for her campaign. She’s raised more than $3 million since launching her campaign last year, including $1.4 million in the past three months.
She has also benefited from outside spending, including more than $1 million dropped by a super PAC affiliated with Emily’s List, a group that aims to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office. House Majority PAC, a super PAC closely aligned with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Ca., has spent more than $260,000 on behalf of Budzinski, according to campaign finance records.
Deering, on the other hand, has raised significantly less. She raised just over $500,000 as off the end of June, including a $150,000 personal loan. She had just over $40,000 on hand after after winning the primary in June compared to Budzinski’s $1 million.
But, she’s since closed the gap, raising $1.35 million in the past fundraising quarter, according to the Deering campaign, nearly matching Budzinski.
However, national Republicans, from the House GOP’s campaign arm to the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, have not spent a dime on Deering’s campaign.
Oftentimes, decisions on where parties devote resources is a tell on where they think the race is at.
Political operatives on both sides say that Budzinski has run a workmanlike race, raising significant campaign cash while avoiding major gaffes, a combination that should work in a Democratic-leaning district most years.
Whereas there are at least 30 Democratic-held seats ranked a tossup or favored by Republicans, according to election handicapper Cook Political Report, that could be attracting Republican resources.
Some have also pointed to the relative lack of spending by Deering, who listed her net worth somewhere between $35 million and $142 million in a federal financial disclosure report. Budzinski reported earning $558,225 in 2021 working as a political consultant, according to her disclosure.
“A wealthy candidate often kind of gets a little bit of a hint from the major committees that says ‘invest in yourself and we’re willing to invest in you,'” said one Democratic political consultant who has worked on congressional races. “And the people that don’t invest in themselves often don’t get spent on unless (the party has) no choice but to win that race.”
But, some political operatives believe there is still time for Republicans to get in on the race, especially as the electoral climate appears to be swinging back towards the party.
Perhaps downplaying expectations, Budzinski campaign officials have said from the outset that they’ve always anticipated a close race.
Despite her wealth, Deering said she is the only candidate rooted in Central Illinois. Though Budzinski was born in Peoria, attended the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and now lives in Springfield, she spent significant portions of her life in Washington, D.C., and Chicago.
“She moved here from Washington to bring about her ideals here,” Deering said. “And what we want is someone like me that is going to go to Washington and represent the people of Central Illinois and take their voice the other way.”
Budzinski and her allies have dismissed Deering as a “wealthy heiress” despite the fact that the former worked for Pritzker, himself a billionaire who inherited his wealth.
“I think what’s most important is electing someone that understands the struggles of working people in their daily lives,” Budzinski said. “I don’t believe Regan Deering does.”
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in November
1. Pennsylvania
1. Pennsylvania
Mehmet Oz (Republican) vs. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (Democrat)
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)
The most consistent thing about CNN’s rankings, dating back to 2021, has been Pennsylvania’s spot in first place. But the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey has tightened since the primaries in May, when Republican Mehmet Oz emerged badly bruised from a nasty intraparty contest. In a CNN Poll of Polls average of recent surveys in the state, Democrat John Fetterman, the state lieutenant governor, had the support of 50% of likely voters to Oz’s 45%. (The Poll of Polls is an average of the four most recent nonpartisan surveys of likely voters that meet CNN’s standards.) Fetterman is still overperforming Biden, who narrowly carried Pennsylvania in 2020. Fetterman’s favorability ratings are also consistently higher than Oz’s.
One potential trouble spot for the Democrat: More voters in a late September Franklin and Marshall College Poll viewed Oz has having policies that would improve voters’ economic circumstances, with the economy and inflation remaining the top concern for voters across a range of surveys. But nearly five months after the primary, the celebrity surgeon still seems to have residual issues with his base. A higher percentage of Democrats were backing Fetterman than Republicans were backing Oz in a recent Fox News survey, for example, with much of that attributable to lower support from GOP women than men. Fetterman supporters were also much more enthusiastic about their candidate than Oz supporters.
Republicans have been hammering Fetterman on crime, specifically his tenure on the state Board of Pardons: An ad from the Senate Leadership Fund features a Bucks County sheriff saying, “Protect your family. Don’t vote Fetterman.” But the lieutenant governor is also using sheriffs on camera to defend his record. And with suburban voters being a crucial demographic, Democratic advertising is also leaning into abortion, like this Senate Majority PAC ad that features a female doctor as narrator and plays Oz’s comments from during the primary about abortion being “murder.” Oz’s campaign has said that he supports exceptions for “the life of the mother, rape and incest” and that “he’d want to make sure that the federal government is not involved in interfering with the state’s decisions on the topic.”
2. Nevada
2. Nevada
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Democrat) vs. Adam Laxalt (Republican)
Incumbent: Cortez Masto
Republicans have four main pickup opportunities — and right now, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s seat looks like one of their best shots. Biden carried Nevada by a slightly larger margin than two of those other GOP-targeted states, but the Silver State’s large transient population adds a degree of uncertainty to this contest.
Republicans have tried to tie the first-term senator to Washington spending and inflation, which may be particularly resonant in a place where average gas prices are now back up to over $5 a gallon. Democrats are zeroing in on abortion rights and raising the threat that a GOP-controlled Senate could pass a national abortion ban. Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt — the rare GOP nominee to have united McConnell and Trump early on — called the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling a “joke” before the Supreme Court overturned the decision in June. Democrats have been all too happy to use that comment against him, but Laxalt has tried to get around those attacks by saying he does not support a national ban and pointing out that the right to an abortion is settled law in Nevada.
3. Georgia
3. Georgia
Sen. Raphael Warnock (Democrat) vs. Herschel Walker (Republican)
Incumbent: Warnock
The closer we get to Election Day, the more we need to talk about the Georgia Senate race going over the wire. If neither candidate receives a majority of the vote in November, the contest will go to a December runoff. There was no clear leader in a recent Marist poll that had Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who’s running for a full six-year term, and Republican challenger Herschel Walker both under 50% among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
Warnock’s edge from earlier this cycle has narrowed, which bumps this seat up one spot on the rankings. The good news for Warnock is that he’s still overperforming Biden’s approval numbers in a state that the President flipped in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes. And so far, he seems to be keeping the Senate race closer than the gubernatorial contest, for which several polls have shown GOP Gov. Brian Kemp ahead. Warnock’s trying to project a bipartisan image that he thinks will help him hold on in what had until recently been a reliably red state. Standing waist-deep in peanuts in one recent ad, he touts his work with Alabama GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville to “eliminate the regulations,” never mentioning his own party. But Republicans have continued to try to tie the senator to his party — specifically for voting for measures in Washington that they claim have exacerbated inflation.
Democrats are hoping that enough Georgians won’t see voting for Walker as an option — even if they do back Kemp. Democrats have amped up their attacks on domestic violence allegations against the former football star and unflattering headlines about his business record. And all eyes will be on the mid-October debate to see how Walker, who has a history of making controversial and illogical comments, handles himself onstage against the more polished incumbent.
4. Wisconsin
4. Wisconsin
Sen. Ron Johnson (Republican) vs. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (Democrat)
Incumbent: Johnson
Sen. Ron Johnson is the only Republican running for reelection in a state Biden won in 2020 — in fact, he broke his own term limits pledge to run a third time, saying he believed America was “in peril.” And although Johnson has had low approval numbers for much of the cycle, Democrats have underestimated him before. This contest moves down one spot on the ranking as Johnson’s race against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has tightened, putting the senator in a better position.
Barnes skated through the August primary after his biggest opponents dropped out of the race, but as the nominee, he’s faced an onslaught of attacks, especially on crime, using against him his past words about ending cash bail and redirecting some funding from police budgets to social services. Barnes has attempted to answer those attacks in his ads, like this one featuring a retired police sergeant who says he knows “Mandela doesn’t want to defund the police.”
A Marquette University Law School poll from early September showed no clear leader, with Johnson at 49% and Barnes at 48% among likely voters, which is a tightening from the 7-point edge Barnes enjoyed in the same poll’s August survey. Notably, independents were breaking slightly for Johnson after significantly favoring Barnes in the August survey. The effect of the GOP’s anti-Barnes advertising can likely be seen in the increasing percentage of registered voters in a late September Fox News survey who view the Democrat as “too extreme,” putting him on parity with Johnson on that question. Johnson supporters are also much more enthusiastic about their candidate.
5. Arizona
5. Arizona
Sen. Mark Kelly (Democrat) vs. Blake Masters (Republican)
Incumbent: Kelly
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who’s running for a full six-year term after winning a 2020 special election, is still one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents in a state that has only recently grown competitive on the federal level. But Republican nominee Blake Masters is nowhere close to rivaling Kelly in fundraising, and major GOP outside firepower is now gone. After canceling its September TV reservations in Arizona to redirect money to Ohio, the Senate Leadership Fund has cut its October spending too.
Other conservative groups are spending for Masters but still have work to do to hurt Kelly, a well-funded incumbent with a strong personal brand. Kelly led Masters 51% to 41% among registered voters in a September Marist poll, although that gap narrowed among those who said they definitely plan to vote. A Fox survey from a little later in the month similarly showed Kelly with a 5-point edge among those certain to vote, just within the margin of error.
Masters has attempted to moderate his abortion position since winning his August primary, buoyed by a Trump endorsement, but Kelly has continued to attack him on the issue. And a recent court decision allowing the enforcement of a 1901 state ban on nearly all abortions has given Democrats extra fodder to paint Republicans as a threat to women’s reproductive rights.
6. North Carolina
6. North Carolina
Rep. Ted Budd (Republican) vs. Cheri Beasley (Democrat)
Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)
North Carolina slides up one spot on the rankings, trading places with New Hampshire. The open-seat race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr hasn’t generated as much national buzz as other states given that Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in the state since 2008.
But it has remained a tight contest with Democrat Cheri Beasley, who is bidding to become the state’s first Black senator, facing off against GOP Rep. Ted Budd, for whom Trump recently campaigned. Beasley lost reelection as state Supreme Court chief justice by only about 400 votes in 2020 when Trump narrowly carried the Tar Heel state. But Democrats hope that she’ll be able to boost turnout among rural Black voters who might not otherwise vote during a midterm election and that more moderate Republicans and independents will see Budd as too extreme. One of Beasley’s recent spots features a series of mostly White, gray-haired retired judges in suits endorsing her as “someone different” while attacking Budd as being a typical politician out for himself.
Budd is leaning into current inflation woes, specifically going after Biden in some ads that feature half-empty shopping carts, without even mentioning Beasley. Senate Leadership Fund is doing the work of trying to tie the Democrat to Washington — one recent spot almost makes her look like the incumbent in the race, superimposing her photo over an image of the US Capitol and displaying her face next to Biden’s. Both SLF and Budd are also targeting Beasley over her support for Democrats’ recently enacted health care, tax and climate bill. “Liberal politician Cheri Beasley is coming for you — and your wallet,” the narrator from one SLF ad intones, before later adding, “Beasley’s gonna knock on your door with an army of new IRS agents.” (The new law increases funding for the IRS, including for audits. But Democrats and the Trump-appointed IRS commissioner have said the intention is to go after wealthy tax cheats, not the middle class.)
7. New Hampshire
7. New Hampshire
Sen. Maggie Hassan (Democrat) vs. Don Bolduc (Republican)
Incumbent: Hassan
A lot has been made of GOP candidate quality this cycle. But there are few states where the difference between the nominee Republicans have and the one they’d hoped to have has altered these rankings quite as much as New Hampshire.
Retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who lost a 2020 GOP bid for the state’s other Senate seat, won last month’s Republican primary to take on first-term Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. The problem for him, though, is that he doesn’t have much money to wage that fight. Bolduc had raised a total of $579,000 through August 24 compared with Hassan’s $31.4 million. Senate Leadership Fund is on air in New Hampshire to boost the GOP nominee — attacking Hassan for voting with Biden and her support of her party’s health care, tax and climate package. But because super PACs get much less favorable TV advertising rates than candidates, those millions won’t go anywhere near as far as Hassan’s dollars will.
A year ago, Republicans were still optimistic that Gov. Chris Sununu would run for Senate, giving them a popular abortion rights-supporting nominee in a state that’s trended blue in recent federal elections. Bolduc told WMUR after his primary win that he’d vote against a national abortion ban. But ads from Hassan and Senate Majority PAC have seized on his suggestion in the same interview that the senator should “get over” the abortion issue. Republicans recognize that abortion is a salient factor in a state Biden carried by 7 points, but they also argue that the election — as Bolduc said to WMUR — will be about the economy and that Hassan is an unpopular and out-of-touch incumbent.
Hassan led Bolduc 49% to 41% among likely voters in a Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The incumbent has consolidated Democratic support, but only 83% of Republicans said they were with Bolduc, the survey found. Still, some of those Republicans, like those who said they were undecided, could come home to the GOP nominee as the general election gets closer, which means Bolduc has room to grow. He’ll need more than just Republicans to break his way, however, which is one reason he quickly pivoted on the key issue of whether the 2020 election was stolen days after he won the primary.
8. Ohio
8. Ohio
J.D. Vance (Republican) vs. Rep. Tim Ryan (Democrat)
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)
Ohio — a state that twice voted for Trump by 8 points — isn’t supposed to be on this list at No. 8, above Florida, which backed the former President by much narrower margins. But it’s at No. 8 for the second month in a row. Republican nominee J.D. Vance’s poor fundraising has forced Senate Leadership Fund to redirect millions from other races to Ohio to shore him up and attack Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee who had the airwaves to himself all summer. The 10-term congressman has been working to distance himself from his party in most of his ads, frequently mentioning that he “voted with Trump on trade” and criticizing the “defund the police” movement. Vance is finally on the air, trying to poke some holes in Ryan’s image.
But polling still shows a tight race with no clear leader. Ryan had an edge with independents in a recent Siena College/Spectrum News poll, which also showed that Vance — Trump’s pick for the nomination — has more work to do to consolidate GOP support after an ugly May primary. Assuming he makes up that support and late undecided voters break his way, Vance will likely hold the advantage in the end given the Buckeye State’s solidifying red lean.
9. Florida
9. Florida
Sen. Marco Rubio (Republican) vs. Rep. Val Demings (Democrat)
Incumbent: Rubio
Democrats face an uphill battle against GOP Sen. Marco Rubio in an increasingly red-trending state, which Trump carried by about 3 points in 2020 — nearly tripling his margin from four years earlier.
Democratic Rep. Val Demings, who easily won the party’s nomination in August, is a strong candidate who has even outraised the GOP incumbent, but not by enough to seriously jeopardize his advantage. She’s leaning into her background as the former Orlando police chief — it features prominently in her advertising, in which she repeatedly rejects the idea of defunding the police. Still, Rubio has tried to tie her to the “radical left” in Washington to undercut her own law enforcement background.
10. Colorado
10. Colorado
Sen. Michael Bennet (Democrat) vs. Joe O’Dea (Republican)
Incumbent: Bennet
Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is no stranger to tough races. In 2016, he only won reelection by 6 points against an underfunded GOP challenger whom the national party had abandoned. Given GOP fundraising challenges in some of their top races, the party hasn’t had the resources to seriously invest in the Centennial State this year.
But in his bid for a third full term, Bennet is up against a stronger challenger in businessman Joe O’Dea, who told CNN he disagreed with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. His wife and daughter star in his ads as he tries to cut a more moderate profile and vows not to vote the party line in Washington.
Bennet, however, is attacking O’Dea for voting for a failed 2020 state ballot measure to ban abortion after 22 weeks of pregnancy and arguing that whatever O’Dea says about supporting abortion rights, he’d give McConnell “the majority he needs” to pass a national abortion ban.
The Ethical Life: How important is a candidate’s health when deciding how to vote?
Analysis: Democrats’ momentum has tempered as key Senate races tighten
A general view of the U.S. Capitol Building, in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 13, 2022.
The race for the Senate is in the eye of the beholder less than six weeks from Election Day, with ads about abortion, crime and inflation dominating the airwaves in key states as campaigns test the theory of the 2022 election.
The cycle started out as a referendum on President Joe Biden — an easy target for Republicans, who need a net gain of just one seat to flip the evenly divided chamber. Then the US Supreme Court’s late June decision overturning Roe v. Wade gave Democrats the opportunity to paint a contrast as Republicans struggled to explain their support for an abortion ruling that the majority of the country opposes. Former President Donald Trump’s omnipresence in the headlines gave Democrats another foil.
But the optimism some Democrats felt toward the end of the summer, on the heels of Biden’s legislative wins and the galvanizing high court decision, has been tempered slightly by the much anticipated tightening of some key races as political advertising ramps up on TV and voters tune in after Labor Day.
Republicans, who have midterm history on their side as the party out of the White House, have hammered Biden and Democrats for supporting policies they argue exacerbate inflation. Biden’s approval rating stands at 41% with 54% disapproving in the latest CNN Poll of Polls, which tracks the average of recent surveys. And with some prices inching back up after a brief hiatus, the economy and inflation — which Americans across the country identify as their top concern in multiple polls — are likely to play a crucial role in deciding voters’ preferences.
But there’s been a steady increase in ads about crime too as the GOP returns to a familiar criticism, depicting Democrats as weak on public safety. Cops have been ubiquitous in TV ads this cycle — candidates from both sides of the aisle have found law enforcement officers to testify on camera to their pro-police credentials. Democratic ads also feature women talking about the threat of a national abortion ban should the Senate fall into GOP hands, while Republicans have spent comparatively less trying to portray Democrats as the extremists on the topic.
While the issue sets have fluctuated, the Senate map hasn’t changed. Republicans’ top pickup opportunities have always been Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and New Hampshire — all states that Biden carried in 2020. In two of those states, however, the GOP has significant problems, although the states themselves keep the races competitive. Arizona nominee Blake Masters is now without the support of the party’s major super PAC, which thinks its money can be better spent elsewhere, including in New Hampshire, where retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc is far from the nominee the national GOP had wanted. But this is the time of year when poor fundraising can really become evident since TV ad rates favor candidates and a super PAC gets much less bang for its buck.
The race for Senate control may come down to three states: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, all of which are rated as “Toss-up” races by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. As Republicans look to flip the Senate, which Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has called a “50-50 proposition,” they’re trying to pick up the first two and hold on to the latter.
Senate Democrats’ path to holding their majority lies with defending their incumbents. Picking off a GOP-held seat like Pennsylvania — still the most likely to flip in CNN’s ranking — would help mitigate any losses. Wisconsin, where GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is vying for a third term, looks like Democrats’ next best pickup opportunity, but that race drops in the rankings this month as Republican attacks take a toll on the Democratic nominee in the polls.
These rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising and advertising data, and polling, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. It will be updated one more time before Election Day.
Contact Brenden Moore at 217-421-7984. Follow him on Twitter: @brendenmoore13
