One week of November college football delivered losses for three of the top six teams in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. What will the second week of the month have in store?
TCU’s CFP hopes got a boost from Alabama and Clemson losing last week, but the Horned Frogs have a tough test to pass on Saturday to remain in the top four. Texas, which was favored and won at Kansas State last week, is a touchdown-favorite at home against undefeated TCU. Will the Longhorns shakeup the CFP race in Austin?
Elsewhere, Georgia heads on the road to take on a quality opponent in Mississippi State and Alabama has another tough road game at Ole Miss. Can Lane Kiffin make Nick Saban’s season even worse? Plus, Oregon hosts Washington in a big game in the Pac-12.
Kickoffs are all on Saturday and the times are Eastern. Rankings are from the CFP rankings. All odds are from BetMGM. Click here for live odds.
No. 7 LSU at Arkansas — Noon on ESPN
At LSU they measure years in three ways:
- Overall wins
- Beating Alabama
- Winning the SEC
After last week’s overtime win in classic fashion against Alabama, the year is looking like a success by any and all measures. The Tigers will look to keep that pace up when they travel to Arkansas.
While Jayden Daniels is riding a high after the Alabama game, Arkansas is looking to rebound offensively after scoring 19 points in a loss to Liberty, dropping the Razorbacks to 5-4 and looking for one final win in their last three games to become bowl eligible.
With LSU and Ole Miss on the schedule the next two weeks, the Razorbacks will likely need to clinch that key win in the final week against Missouri. The oddsmakers agree, as LSU enters favored by a field goal on the road.
Why is LSU just a field-goal favorite? Well, they weren’t supposed to be here. No one thought this would happen in Brian Kelly’s first season at the helm, but here they are, on the verge of an SEC Championship Game appearance.
But LSU hasn’t been totally dominant on either side of the ball this year. Offensively, they rank 32nd in yards per game (440.9) and 44th in total defense (359.4 yards per game).
But what LSU does well is control the pace of play, ranking No. 18 in total plays (650) and No. 28 in average time of possession.
And in a conference with Bryce Young, Hendon Hooker and Stetson Bennett, you can’t overlook how well Daniels has played this year, throwing just one interception. On the flip side he has been sacked a conference-high 31 times.
Daniels and the LSU offense will have their hands full against the linebacker duo of Bumper Pool and Butkus Award semifinalist Drew Sanders, who have combined for 154 tackles and 10 sacks on the year.
Despite Pool, Sanders and the play of quarterback K.J. Jefferson, Arkansas has struggled with consistency this year. With a 2-3 conference record, it’s hard to see them taking down a laser-focused LSU team, which has outscored SEC opponents 313-200 this year.
Expert picks against the spread
Picks made at LSU -3
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Brody Miller |
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Austin Mock |
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Dan Santaromita |
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Chris Vannini |
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Ari Wasserman |
Purdue at No. 21 Illinois — Noon on ESPN2
This matchup will decide which team takes control of first place in the Big Ten West standings. The Fighting Illini are favored by about a touchdown entering Saturday’s big game.
Illinois running back Chase Brown is currently leading the Big Ten in rushing yards (1,344), and his production could prove to be critical on Saturday against Purdue. Illinois is all alone in first place in the Big Ten West with a 4-2 conference record, but after losing at home to Michigan State last week, four teams, including Purdue, are one game behind the Illini.
Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers know exactly who they are — a past-first team willing to go as far as quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s arm takes them. Unfortunately, with just a 5-4 record, and O’Connell’s 15:10 touchdown, Purdue isn’t exactly setting the Big Ten on fire. However, the quarterback-wide receiver tandem of O’Connell and Charlie Jones — the conference’s leader in catches (83) and receiving yards (944) — could lead the Boilermakers to a win on Saturday and jolt them to the top of the Big Ten West, heading into mid-November. But they’ll have to do so against an Illinois defense allowing only 10.4 points per game.
Expert picks against the spread
Picks made at Illinois -6.5
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Brody Miller |
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Austin Mock |
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Dan Santaromita |
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Chris Vannini |
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Ari Wasserman |
Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan — 3:30 p.m. on ABC
November 26. Big House. We all have it circled. Ohio State vs. Michigan in a likely showdown of two of the remaining undefeated teams in the final week of the season. We script things like this in Hollywood, but before we get there, they both have to get through two more teams first.
Michigan is a 30-point favorite, so unless we have another Appalachian State situation here, Michigan will head into Week 12’s game against Illinois at 10-0. But can they cover a spread that big?
On the year, Michigan is 5-4 against the spread and 3-3 at home. Nebraska, meanwhile, is 3-6 against the spread this season.
Jim Harbaugh’s defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation, allowing just 242.4 yards per game and has allowed 13 touchdowns — tied for the third-fewest with Iowa.
Nebraska, meanwhile, ranks No. 113 in total defense, allowing nearly 200 yards more per game (441) and 33 touchdowns this year.
That’s music to the ears of Blake Corum (1,187 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns), J.J. McCarthy (1,615 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, 158.3 efficiency), and co.
The Nebraska offense hasn’t been as bad as the defense, but they sit middle of the road, averaging 377.1 yards per game as Casey Thompson has 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Expert picks against the spread
Picks made at Michigan -29.5
| Writer | Pick |
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Brody Miller |
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Austin Mock |
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Dan Santaromita |
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Chris Vannini |
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Ari Wasserman |
No. 9 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss — 3:30 p.m. on CBS
Since 2012, Alabama has appeared in seven SEC Championship Games. That number will likely remain at seven, unless they’re able to backdoor their way into it this year following their one-point overtime loss to LSU last week.
The path to Atlanta gets even more complicated for the Crimson Tide, as they’ll travel to Ole Miss on Saturday. At 8-1, this is a different Ole Miss team than Nick Saban is used to. Under Lane Kiffin, the Rebels are an offensive juggernaut, averaging 494.7 yards per game, which ranks No. 11 in the nation. That’s thanks in part to their No. 3 ranked rushing offense led by freshman of the year nominee Quinshon Judkins’ 1,036 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.
Alabama is a double-digit road favorite. History is on the side of the Crimson Tide, as they haven’t suffered back-to-back same-season losses in nearly nine years.
What’s in Alabama’s favor is, besides being Alabama, is that for as good as Ole Miss’ rushing attack is, ‘Bama’s rushing defense is just as elite. The Crimson Tide ranks No. 11 in the nation, giving up 104 yards on the ground per game and No. 12 in overall defense (303.6).
Despite Jayden Daniels coming up in the big moments for LSU Saturday, the Alabama defense was still able to sack him six times. Applying that pressure on Jaxson Dart could be key for Alabama.
Expert picks against the spread
Picks made at Alabama -11.5
| Writer | Pick |
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Brody Miller |
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Austin Mock |
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Dan Santaromita |
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Chris Vannini |
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Ari Wasserman |
No. 1 Georgia at Mississippi State — 7 p.m. on ESPN
A battle of Bulldogs is slated for Saturday evening when Georgia travels to Mississippi to take on Mississippi State. Georgia will enter enemy territory as the favorite by more than two touchdowns.
If Mississippi State is serious about pulling off a major upset, its offense is going to need to show up. The Bulldogs are scoring 13.0 points per game in losses and 42.3 in wins. In other words, the SEC’s leader in passing yards per game, Will Rogers, will have to be at the top of his game. Such a task will be difficult against arguably the nation’s best defense.
Kirby Smart’s defending champion Georgia Bulldogs are currently owners of the No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. A fourth-straight win over Mississippi State would further cement the Bulldogs as the top team in the nation. How do they do that? Simple. By continuing to perform like a top-3 offense and defense in college football.
Expert picks against the spread
Picks made at Georgia -16.5
| Writer | Pick |
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Brody Miller |
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Austin Mock |
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Dan Santaromita |
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Chris Vannini |
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Ari Wasserman |
No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon — 7 p.m. on Fox
Eugene will host a massive game in the Pac-12 this week as No. 6 Oregon looks to solidify its spot on top of the conference when it hosts the Washington Huskies. The Ducks are nearly a two touchdown favorite over the visiting Huskies.
The Ducks enter the game as the only unbeaten team in Pac-12 play, while their only loss for the season came in Week 1 against Georgia. They are riding an eight-game winning streak that has seen them light up the scoreboard most of the season. They boast the nation’s third-highest scoring offense at 43.3 points per game, and have averaged 48.1 points during the current winning streak, never scoring less than 41 points during that stretch.
That offense is led by transfer quarterback Bo Nix who has already accounted for 35 touchdowns (22 passing, 13 rushing) in his first year with the Ducks. He is one of three Oregon players with over 400 rushing yards this season, joining running backs Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington.
While the Ducks are in the driver’s seat for one of the two spots in the Pac-12 title game they have their work cut out for them over the final three weeks of the season, playing Washington, Utah and Oregon State. All three teams are already bowl eligible, while the Utah game could be pivotal when it comes to the title game.
Having already lost two games in conference play the Huskies cannot afford to drop another one if they want to keep their slim title game hopes alive. They are 2-0 against ranked opponents this season, including against Oregon State a week ago.
Expert picks against the spread
Picks made at Oregon -13.5
| Writer | Pick |
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Brody Miller |
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Austin Mock |
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Dan Santaromita |
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Chris Vannini |
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Ari Wasserman |
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas — 7:30 p.m. on ABC
No. 4 TCU will be looking to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive when the Horned Frogs visit in-state rival Texas this week in a massive Big 12 showdown. Despite the undefeated 9-0 record the Horned Frogs are still a touchdown underdog on the road.
This is a potential Big 12 title game preview. At 6-0 in the Big 12, TCU has a two-game lead over every other team in the conference. Meanwhile, the Longhorns enter in a three-way tie for second with Baylor and Kansas State, which Texas just beat last week.
A TCU win on Saturday would secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, while a loss could make things really tight with another potentially huge game with Baylor looming next week.
Led by first-year coach Sonny Dykes, TCU has one of the best offenses in the country averaging over 40 points per game on the season. Quarterback Max Duggan is having a monster season with 24 touchdowns to only two interceptions. He has also accounted for 282 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
TCU’s ground game is one of the best in the nation, averaging over 215 yards per game. Running back Kendre Miller has already topped the 1,000-yard mark for the season and is averaging over 6.6 yards per carry.
Texas boasts a star running back of its own with Bijan Robinson entering Saturday’s game with 1,129 yards on the ground and 1,443 yards from scrimmage.
The Longhorns can not afford a third conference loss in the tight Big 12 race. They also have Baylor remaining on their schedule.
It has already been a strong bounceback year for the Texas program under second-year coach Steve Sarkisian, having already topped its win total from a year ago. This is their third consecutive game against a ranked opponent, and if they can get a win here it would be a big statement in the Big 12 and give them a great chance at a potential conference title.
Expert picks against the spread
Picks made at Texas -7
| Writer | Pick |
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Brody Miller |
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Austin Mock |
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Dan Santaromita |
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Chris Vannini |
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Ari Wasserman |
Picks records
| Writer | Last week | Overall |
|---|---|---|
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Chris Vannini |
4-3 |
44-36-1 |
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Dan Santaromita |
3-4 |
42-38-1 |
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Brody Miller |
5-2 |
39-41-1 |
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Austin Mock |
2-5 |
38-42-1 |
|
Ari Wasserman |
2-5 |
38-42-1 |
(Photo of Quinn Ewers: Scott Sewell / USA Today)
