As of this writing, Caesars Sports Book had the Illini as -9.5 favorites. The over/under was 139.5.
____________
SCORE PREDICTIONS
MARK BRENNAN (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
COMMENT: Sooner or later, the 3-pointers are bound to start falling again for Penn State, and I would not be at all surprised if it happens against an Illinois team that ranks eighth in the Big Ten when it comes to defending shots from the arc. If the Lions keep running their offense and moving the ball, the open looks will come. I just don’t think it is going to be quite enough against this particular opponent.
The Illini scored 44 points in the paint in a recent tight loss at Maryland and 28 in beating a Texas team with serious length. Shannon and Epps can both drive and score, and Shannon lives at the free-throw line. Dainja, Hawkins and even Mayer can score inside. That spells trouble for a PSU team with one legit paint protector, and Njie only plays 17.4 minutes per game. Illinois pulls away late, but poor free-throw shooting prevents this one from becoming a blowout.
PREDICTION: Illinois 77, Penn State 65 (Illinois -12, 142 total)
____________
DANIEL GALLEN (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
COMMENT: Penn State’s loss to Michigan State was a disappointment, given the ceiling that the Nittany Lions showed in the early part of the season, and a trip to Illinois a couple days later doesn’t create a soft landing. The Fighting Illini are coming off an upset win over No. 2 Texas, and the team is constructed in a way that it could give the Nittany Lions some fits, mainly in the form of 6-foot-10 Coleman Hawkins, 6-9 Dain Dainja and 6-9 Matthew Mayer. As was often the case last season, Penn State will be at an obvious talent disadvantage.
But this was also the scenario last season where Shrewsberry thrived. More often than not, Shrewsberry had his team in games that many outside observers didn’t think the Nittany Lions would have a chance in, and Saturday’s matchup fits the bill. I think Penn State will be poised for a bounce-back performance with improved 3-point shooting, but I still think Illinois has too much size on the interior for the Nittany Lions.
PREDICTION: Illinois 71, Penn State 60 (Illinois -11, 131 total)
