No. 21 North Carolina has already knocked off the preseason pick to win the Atlantic Coast Conference’s Coastal Division. Now, the Tar Heels (6-1 overall, 3-0 ACC) have the chance to take a commanding lead in the division by beating the defending champion.
Pittsburgh (4-3, 1-2), which won the Coastal and its first ACC title a year ago, comes to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill on Saturday (8 p.m., ACC Network) hoping to derail a UNC squad riding a three-game winning streak. Included in those three victories is a 27-24 win at Miami, which was tabbed the preseason Coastal favorite in media voting back in August.
If the Tar Heels can defeat the Panthers, they would hold at least a two-game lead in the Coastal with four conference games remaining in the regular season. Two of those are inter-division contests against Georgia Tech and Virginia, who are a combined 6-8, while the other two are against Atlantic Division members Wake Forest and N.C. State. If UNC beats Georgia Tech and Virginia, and lose to Wake and N.C. State, they’d still finish atop the Coastal regardless of ties because of an advantage in head-to-head division competition.
All that makes Saturday a pivotal moment in the 2022 season for the Tar Heels.
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Here’s what to know about this year’s Pittsburgh-UNC matchup and a score prediction.
BAD BYE BREAKS
North Carolina is coming off its second bye week of the 2022 season, and such breaks in the schedule haven’t been kind to the Tar Heels since Mack Brown returned as head coach in 2018.
Brown’s record is 1-5 following bye weeks during that span with the only win against Boston College in 2020 when that game was rescheduled due to COVID-19.
Three of UNC’s defeats after bye weeks under Brown have been against Notre Dame, including 45-32 setback this year. The other two were decided in overtime — an epic six-overtime loss against Virginia Tech in 2019 and a 30-23 overtime defeat at Pitt last season.
“Those were all tough games,” Brown said. “We had a chance to win them. I think what we’re doing with the open date is fair and good, we’ve just got to play better.”
PANTHER POUNDING
Quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns to key Pitt’s overtime win against UNC last year. Pickett is now starting in the NFL for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and his absence has dramatically altered the course of his old team’s offense.
With 5-foot-11, 215-pound junior Israel Abanikanda leading the way, Pitt has evolved into an effective ball-control, running offense. Abanikanda leads the ACC and is fourth nationally with 959 yards rushing (137 yards per game) and is tied for first nationally with 13 rushing touchdowns.
Due in large part to Abanikanda’s success, the Panthers are maintaining possession at an ACC-best 33 minutes and 35 seconds per game. Similar success on the ground will be critical Saturday to keep UNC’s explosive offense off the field.
STYLE CONTRAST
While Pitt has relied on a ball-control style on offense, UNC employs an up-tempo, explosive passing attack led by redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Maye.
Maye is second nationally with 24 touchdown passes this season and is also the Tar Heels’ leading rusher with 378 yards. Behind Maye, UNC has accumulated more than 500 yards of offense in two of its last three games.North Carolina is tied for eighth nationally with a scoring average of 41.7.
A PHYSICAL LOSS
The Tar Heels will face Pitt’s physical offensive attack minus one of its most physical defenders.
Brown announced during the bye week that graduate nose tackle Ray Vohasek will miss the rest of the season due to an “upper-body injury” that required surgery. Vohasek, from McHenry, Illinois, has been a valued member of Brown’s defensive line since transferring to UNC from DuPage junior in 2009. He’s appeared in 41 games and made 29 starts, including the first five this season. Vohasek has recorded 96 total tackles, 17 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks as a Tar Heel.
UNC will look to junior Kevin Hester, true freshman Travis Shaw and redshirt freshman Keeshawn Silver to help fill the void against Pitt.
SCORE PREDICTION
Pitt 33, North Carolina 31: Barring some sudden turnaround, UNC’s defense has been poor at best against the run this season. The Tar Heels will have a difficult time getting Pitt’s ground-based offense off the field. Still, UNC’s offense will keep the game close, but the Panthers win out again by a narrow margin.
